Fall Hummingbird Odds are Really Low

Influential birders in this area have been urging homeowners to keep nectar feeders up during the autumn and early winter months in support of Rufous Hummingbirds. While I am doing this I harbor no illusions that I will ever see any here. My review of the literature gives a bleak assessment. Yes, this species has been observed more frequently in North Carolina. But the sightings are few and far between. Sightings (and bandings) are more frequent on the coast and to my south. The NC Museum of Natural Sciences notes repeat sightings as close as Durham (20 miles away) and I have heard that the bird has been observed even here in Cary. If that is true my very best odds are about 1:100,000 (a crude calculation based on equal chance per acre) and it's worse than that because I am on the wrong side of town. It does not hurt to give it a try, but I'll be a very surprised guy if one of these birds shows up at my home this winter or even in the next few years.