Wishful Thinking

For some weeks now I have been watching my feeders and BirdCam photos in hopes of seeing a Red Breasted Nuthatch. They are in our area, based on statements of reliable observers. Alas, I have not seen them here. This and two other photos gave me brief pause---is the wait over? Some of the colors are correct on this bird, but the more plausible reality, if we apply Occam's Razor, is that I'm seeing a Carolina Chickadee instead. And hopes are dashed for a RHN Christmas. And therein lies a lesson for us all. Unless the evidence is conclusive, we can't engage in wishful observation. The more common bird is probably the best explanation. Merry Christmas to all!